Tag Archives: Market Trends

Montecito/Santa Barbara Market Analysis Of 2016

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Marketing to Buyers Across the Globe is More Important Today Than Ever.

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THE GLOBAL LUXURY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT 2015

SIRA and Wealth-X published their first joint report — “THE GLOBAL LUXURY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT 2015.” This exciting research takes a deep dive into trends impacting the luxury real estate market for the globe’s ultra high net worth individuals and highlights many of our company-owned markets. This report cements SIR’s leadership position in luxury real estate on a global basis.

Click here for the full Global Luxury Residential Real Estate Report 2015.

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2000 to 2014 – Real Estate Market Update for Santa Barbara and Montecito

AN IMPROVING ESTATE MARKET IN MONTECITO & SANTA BARBARA, CALIFORNIA

Estate Market Over $4M Summary 2000-2014.pub

Click here to download the latest Little Woods Newsletter by Harry Kolb.

The number of estate homes sold in the Santa Barbara area, those sold for over $4 million, was up nicely last year – increasing 33% over the number sold in 2013. Comparing the eventual sales price to the last asking price was also up to an average of 93% and up to an average of 82% of the first asking price – each an indication of an improving market. But the average number of days on the market was longer, probably due to the fact that inventory of available homes has been reduced and that lead to a number of homes selling that had been on the market for a considerable time as buyers were suffering from a lack of homes to choose from.

SB Area Sales Between $5 - $10m 2000-2014.pub

Although the number of homes sold for over $4 million last year was up so considerably from the previous year, the actual sales experience for most of the estate homes on the market has been less than encouraging because a large percentage of these homes sold were sold below $5 million. As is usually the case, our improving market begins in the lower price ranges as it did a few years ago in the below $1 million price range. That improving market has now migrated up to include the $4 million market, but hasn’t been felt yet in the mid or upper ranges of the estate market. This becomes evident in the chart showing that homes sold for between $5 – $10 million was up from last year but still below the number sold in 2012, and those sold for between $10 – $20 million were down from each of the two previous years. It became even worse in the graph of homes sold for over $20 million because last year the most expensive home sold in our area was sold at $20 million, where both buyer and seller were represented by Sotheby’s, and no local homes sold for more.

SB Area Sales Between $10 - $20 Million 2000-2014.pub

The market for significant homes valued over $4 million is considerably different than the market for the average American home we all read about in the press. The national press and even our local papers take their statics from readily available statistics from our local Board of Realtors where the median sales price for all homes sold in our area last year was $990,000 and the median time on the market was 95 days. Obviously a different market than that of estate properties. And when major media report that the average price of homes sold last year was up 18%, as it appears in our local MLS statistics, the press fails to remind readers that much of that increase in average sales prices is due to fewer and fewer lower priced homes being available in the inventory as buyers take advantage of foreclosures and distressed properties as they consume the inventory. Measuring true appreciation in a market requires comparing the value of the same home over a period of time. Of the 76 homes sold for over $4 million in our area last year, four sold for more than they did within the past five years, one sold for less, and five sold for the same. These are all considered same for same without including homes that may have been improved in any manner. So from a value standpoint, we appear to have appreciated ourselves back to where we were in 2008 before the market reversal.

SB Area Sales Over $20m 2000-2014.pub

Where the market for the average American home is closely associated with long-term interest rates, our local market for estate homes is much more associated with consumer confidence. To show this obvious relationship, I’ve included a graph plotting consumer confidence for each of the past 15 years next to the sale of local estate properties for that same year showing this very direct relationship. It’s comforting to see that the CCI now is higher than it’s been for the past six years.

Estate Market Over $4M With Consumer Confidence 2000-2014.pub

Based on the generally improving estate sales over the past five years, the improving relation of final sales prices to the last asking price and what is a dramatically improved Consumer Confidence Index, it seems reasonable to anticipate an improving estate market this coming year. This coupled with what appears to be a pent-up demand from an increasing pool of buyers looking for property but not being able to find what they’re looking for from our current limited inventory, the prospects for the coming year look promising.

 

Luxury Real Estate Headlines: 3rd Week of July

Prima Luce, An Italian-style Villa located in Montecito, California enjoys several online features

Highlights from this week’s top news stories on luxury real estate, home, art, collectibles, Sotheby’s auction house, jets & yachts, sports & luxury cars, and lifestyle & travel news from around the world.

My exclusive listing, Prima Luce, is currently featured on several luxury home websites including, HauteLiving.com as part of their Estates of the Week, Clientele Magazine.com Luxury Property of the Day, and a special cover feature and inside editorial feature in Private Air Luxury Magazine. The feature has also been posted to our social media outlets, facebook and Twitter.

Prima Luce, Haute Living’s Estate of the Week – HauteLiving.com

Sotheby’s International Realty Social Media Links:
https://www.facebook.com/sothebyshomesla and https://twitter.com/sothebyshomesla

Harry’s Listing the Montecito Italian-style Villa is Clientele Luxury’s Property of the Day – Clientele Luxury Magazine

Prima Luce Featured in Private Air Luxury e-Magazine July/August 2014 Edition – Private Air Magazine

OTHER LUXURY HEADLINES

The Most Expensive Homes for Sale in New York Right Now – NY.Curbed.com

House of the Day: Waterfront Setting Inspires Love of Sailing – The Wall Street Journal

Europe House of the Day: Luxury Village Home – The Wall Street Journal

Asia House of the Day: High-Rise Living in the Philippines – The Wall Street Journal 

Former NFL tailback Rashard Mendenhall retires to Santa Monica – LA Times

Hamptons Estate Lists for $65 Million – The Wall Street Journal 

With Old Masters, the Brand Is King—The New York Times

On Britain’s South Coast,’ Playground’ for the Rich – The New York Times

 

Long Term Improvement in Estate Sales in the Montecito and Santa Barbara Area

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January 15, 2014
By Harry Kolb

Click here to print The Little Wood’s Newsletter

MONTECITO & SANTA BARBARA:  Even though the volume of estate homes sold in 2013 was not as strong as the previous year, it did continue to demonstrate a general slow growth over the past several years. Where the Montecito/Santa Barbara area market was beginning to show some signs of a comeback in 2012, that confidence didn’t continue through 2013 although we did sell more estate homes than in the previous three years. In 2012 we sold 72 homes for more than $4 million where in 2013 we sold only 57. What was slightly better in 2013 was that the average days on the market came down from 670 days to 514 and the average sales price compared to the last asking price came up from 90% to 92% – both signs of an improving market and the meager beginnings of a Seller’s Market.

Santa Barbara Estate Market Over $4M Summary 2000-2013

The estate market in the Montecito and Santa Barbara area is usually divided into three price ranges; $5-$10 million, $10-$20 million and over $20 million. In the $5-$10 million market we sold 39 homes in 2012 but only 27 in 2013, down for the year but slightly better than the previous three years.

Santa Barbara Area Sales Between $5 - $10m 2000-2013

In the $10-$20 million price range we sold 14 homes in 2012 and 12 in 2013, down for the year but considerably better than in 2011 when we sold only two homes all year.

Santa Barbara Area Sales Between $10 - $20 Million 2000-2013.pub

The Montecito and Santa Barbara estate market of homes sold for over $20 million was especially disappointing. In 2013 we sold only one major estate, down from the previous year when we sold three, but again on par or better than the previous two years.

SB Area Sales Over $20m 2000-2013.pub

The Montecito and Santa Barbara market for significant homes valued over $4 million is considerably different than the market for the average American home we all read about in the press. The national press and even our local papers take their statics from readily available statistics from our local Board of Realtors where the median sales price for all homes sold in Santa Barbara county last year was $775,000 and the median time on the market was 18 days. Obviously a different market than that of estate properties. And when major media report that the average price of homes sold last year was up 20%, as it appears in our local Santa Barbara county statistics, the press fails to remind readers that much of that increase in average sales prices is due to fewer and fewer lower priced homes available in the inventory as buyers take advantage of foreclosures and distressed properties as they consume the inventory. Measuring true appreciation in a market requires comparing the value of the same home over a period of time. Of the 57 homes sold for over $4 million in Montecito and Santa Barbara last year, five sold for more than they did within the past five years, seven sold for less, and four sold for the same. These are all considered same for same without including homes that may have been improved in any manner. So from a value standpoint, we appear to have appreciated ourselves back to where we were in 2008 before the market reversal.

Based on the generally improving estate sales over the past five years in Montecito and Santa Barbara, the improving relation of final sales prices to the last asking price and what appears to be an improving Consumer Confidence Index, it seems reasonable to anticipate an improving estate market this coming year. This coupled with what appears to be a pent up demand from an increasing pool of buyers looking for property but not being able to find what they’re looking for from our current limited inventory, the prospects for the coming year look promising.

Santa Barbara Estate Market Over $4M With Consumer Confidence 2000-2013

 

For more information on the Montecito and Santa Barbara Estate Market please call Harry Kolb at 805-452-2500 or e-mail harry@harrykolb.com.